The Federal Government has begun preparations for a new National Baseline Survey on illicit small arms and light weapons.

This is coming a decade after the country conducted its first survey in 2016.

The plan was disclosed on Wednesday in Abuja at a one-day workshop reviewing lessons from the 2016 exercise, organised by the National Centre for the Control of Small Arms and Light Weapons.

Speaking at the event, the National Security Adviser, Nuhu Ribadu, represented by the Director of External Affairs at the Office of the National Security Adviser, Solomon Fehintola, linked the spread of illicit weapons directly to insecurity across the country, saying such arms sustain banditry in the North-West, fuel farmer-herder clashes in the North-Central, arm criminal gangs in cities and support terrorist groups in the North-East.

He said the government could no longer afford to tackle the problem without solid data, insisting that policy must be evidence-driven rather than based on assumptions.

“Government’s response to this threat cannot be based on guesswork. It must be built on evidence,” Ribadu said.

He described a reliable national baseline as central to national security planning, noting that it strengthens the country’s ability to track weapons flows and target disarmament efforts more effectively.

“First, an accurate and credible baseline is a strategic national security asset. It sharpens the targeting of counter-proliferation and disarmament efforts and strengthens our ability to track the flow of illicit weapons across our borders and within our communities.

“Second, this must remain a whole-of-government and whole-of-society effort. Security agencies, sub-national governments, traditional and religious institutions, civil society organisations and communities themselves must all contribute to the process.

“The next survey must therefore be designed to draw on all these sources of knowledge and information,” he said.

In his remarks, the Director/Deputy High Representative of the United Nations Office for Disarmament Affairs, Adedeji Ebo, argued that the 2016 data was no longer sufficient for assessing Nigeria’s current security threats, given how much had changed in the intervening decade.

“You cannot conduct a solid national threat analysis in 2026 based solely on data from 2016,” Ebo said.

He said the lack of updated data was limiting the precision of government responses, making it difficult to determine the scale of illicit weapons in circulation, their sources and their movement across the country.

Ebo also stressed that the new survey must draw on more than official records, pointing to community actors whose knowledge official data systems often miss.

“Sampling must be defensible, while enumerators must be properly trained and adequately protected. Data collected from communities affected by violence carries real risks for those providing it.

“Secondly, there is the issue of inclusion. The picture will be incomplete if it is drawn solely from official records.

“Traditional and religious leaders, women’s organisations, youth associations, farmers, fishers, artisanal producers and survivors of armed violence all possess knowledge that no database can fully capture,” he said.

The Director-General of the National Centre for the Control of Small Arms and Light Weapons, retired DIG Johnson Kokumo, said Nigeria’s security environment had evolved considerably in the nearly 10 years since the country’s first National Baseline Survey on illicit small arms and light weapons was conducted in 2016.

He said the patterns of armed violence in the country had shifted, new forms of criminality had emerged, and trafficking routes and methods had adapted since the last exercise, making it necessary for Nigeria to reassess the illicit weapons landscape afresh.

“Nigeria’s security environment has evolved considerably. The nature and patterns of armed violence have changed. New forms of criminality have emerged, trafficking routes and methods have adapted, while illicit weapons proliferation continues to interact with political, social, economic, environmental and security challenges,” he said.

Kokumo noted that the 2016 survey had served as a landmark undertaking that shaped national policy, including the establishment of the NCCSALW and the development of a National Action Plan on small arms control.